Favourites Winning Less Often With Horse Racing Behind Closed Doors?

The decision of the British government to ban crowds from professional sporting events has had a profound effect on numerous different sports. For horse racing, the damage done by a lack of spectators comes in several forms, with one of them being that the sport is being hit financially in a way that may damage it for years to come. The head of the Racecourse Association believes it’s costing around £300 million.

The other thing that racing needs to be wary of is whether or not the actual results themselves are differing because of a lack of crowds. It’s obviously something that is almost impossible to quantify, but at the same time it is certainly interesting to think about. Just as some footballers are actually benefiting from no supporters in grounds and others are suffering, is the same true of horses with the absence of spectators?

Looking At February 2021 So Far

In order to get a sense of whether or not racing has been affected by the move behind closed doors, it’s worth having a look at the results from a specific time period when that has been the case. Despite a brief period when spectators were allowed back on to racecourses, the month of February in 2021 saw the sport remain resolutely without crowds thanks to a third government-imposed lockdown.

By looking at racing across a number of courses and identifying not only how the race Favourite got on each time but also the odds of the eventual winner, it should give us a sense of whether or not some horses are managing to over-perform their expectations. It’s far from a fail-safe method of exploring the topic, but what we’re looking for is a feeling of whether or not results are different from what we’d expect them to be.

Here’s a look at a selection of races from February 2021:

The results in the above races are taken from the 1st of February and the 14th of the month. It’s interesting to note that, of the 44 races we looked at, the favourite won on 19 occasions, or 43.18% of races. What we don’t know is what, exactly, that tells us about the results of races without crowds. The best thing to do, therefore, is compare with races from the same date a year earlier, when crowds were present.

Here’s a look at some races from the same dates in February 2020:

This time around, the favourite won 25 of 49 races, which equates to 51.02% of races that were run by the favourites. That is an increase of about 8% in terms of the favourites winning.

Favourites Winning Less?

Knowing that there has been a marked decrease in the number of times that the favourites win a race depending on whether or not there is a crowd at the racecourses is all well and good, but can we figure out why? There are two main reasons why this is likely to be the case, with the first being that the favourite is less geed up by the absence of the screaming and shouting that accompanies spectators being on the course.

The second is that horses that would normally be intimidated by the presence of crowds are less cowed, thereby being more able to actively engage in the races. It’s impossible to tell exactly which one applies and will doubtless require a case-by-case investigation and a look at horses across a wide spectrum of races to properly work it out. What we do know is that a bet on the favourite looks less safe when no crowds are on the courses.

This isn’t a scientific look at things, of course, so there are a number of things to bear in mind. The fact that we aren’t looking at the same horses racing in the same events a year apart is one thing. That we don’t know how often the favourites win those races the rest of the time also makes a difference to our findings. Even so, it is difficult to argue that a lack of spectators isn’t making at least some difference to race outcomes.