Can a flat race really make you favourite for the Champion Hurdle? Well, it turns out, it can!
After a fantastic success at Southwell on Friday night, Constitution Hill wowed us on the flat, and at the same time, sent himself to the top of the Champion Hurdle market with almost every bookmaker.
As short as 7/4 with some operators, he’s as big as 3/1 with others, so there is a difference of opinion in the market. But what all bookmakers did, very roughly, was at least halve his odds for the Cheltenham Festival day one showpiece.
A nine and a half length victory under jockey Oisin Murphy gave us hope that he can be group class on the flat, and will no doubt end up running on the level at some point in the future.
But does it really impact him over hurdles, and if it does, enough to halve him in price for one of the biggest prizes in racing, after falling so often in recent runs?
Doubts Over Champion Hurdle Credentials
I’ve got doubts, and I think the price on offer at the moment is dreadful value for a horse that’s really struggled with his jumping.
The cynical side of me would want 3/1 for him to complete in a Champion Hurdle, after falling in last year’s race and falling in others since.
For those looking for some positives, I think he proved on Friday night that he still loves to race and that he’s still got the engine we saw to great effect a couple of years ago.
But of course, that doesn’t translate simply to hurdles, and there are obstacles in his way. We have no confirmation that he’s back in love with jumping and that he will get around safely.
It takes a big leap of faith, and probably some more on top, to be in the Constitution Hill camp going into the Cheltenham Festival on the back of a flat win.
Sign of a Weak Champion Hurdle?
In two weeks, the 2026 Champion Hurdle will take place, and I’m leaning more and more towards the fact that this is a weak renewal, and that’s the reason why the price on offer for Constitution Hill is so short.
If we’d got top-quality horses for him to run against, with proven form in the book, I’m not sure many would be happy to take a risk on the Henderson runner.
If you look at The New Lion, many believe he’s not a true two miler, and while I think he’ll run well, he doesn’t scream Champion Hurdle winner.
Brighterdaysahead beat Lossiemouth at the Dublin Racing Festival, but hasn’t yet been consistently at that level, so comes with something to prove.
Lossiemouth, not at her best that day, could come here, but seems more likely to go to the Mares’ Hurdle and defend that crown.
Next up, you get to Golden Ace, Champion Hurdle winner in 2025, in very fortunate circumstances, and for her to win this year, it’s either going to be equally dramatic or a lower-quality renewal.
I think it’s a race full of question marks, and with no standout contender. We might look back at this contest in years to come and say it was one of the worst renewals in many years.
And I think that’s exactly the reason why Constitution Hill is being shortened and backed by some. Because if he jumps, and if he’s at his very best, he might well be able to carry these on his back and still beat them.