• Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Cheltenham Betting Offers

  • Home
  • Free Bets
  • Meetings
    • New Year’s Day Meeting
    • Festival Trials Day
    • Cheltenham Festival
    • April Meeting
    • Race Night
    • Showcase Meeting
    • November Meeting
    • International Meeting
  • News
  • Articles
    • Stats & Trends

How Often Does the Favourite Win at the Cheltenham Festival?

favourites that win at the cheltenham festival average
Data showing the overall average number of favourites that win at the Cheltenham Festival

Backing the favourite in a horse race is a perilous game, on the one hand a favourite is fancied for a reason, because most people think it will win, but on the other hand the shorter odds you get on favourites mean that you generally need to back them to win with a decent stake and if you are wrong it can hit your pocket.

The Cheltenham Festival adds a degree of complexity to picking races to back favourites, simply because for most of the races all the horses are previous winners and many have been favourites at some point.  In some ways you at Cheltenham you are looking at the favourite, favourite.

As a rule of thumb favourites win around 30% of races or 3 in 10.  This, of course, is a general statistic taken from 1000’s of races and doesn’t consider the factors that affect individual races.  Therefore, here we show you the percentage favourites that win in all 28 Cheltenham Festival races to help you find the right races to back the favourites in and the right races to look for longer odds outsiders.

Percentage Favourites That Win Cheltenham Festival Races

Race Favourite Win Percentage Average Winner Odds
Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle 56% 6.28
The Champion Hurdle 52% 8.12
The Cheltenham Gold Cup 48% 6.3
Arkle Challenge Trophy 43% 6.61
Queen Mother Champion Chase 39% 5.43
Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle 38% 11.71
Ryanair Chase 37% 6.03
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 35% 6.84
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 35% 8.87
The Stayers' Hurdle 35% 9.81
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 32% 6.99
Turners Novices' Chase 31% 6.36
JCB Triumph Hurdle 30% 9.95
Foxhunter Challenge Cup 30% 17.98
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 30% 10.06
National Hunt Chase 30% 13.05
County Handicap Hurdle 22% 17.29
Weatherbys Champion Bumper 22% 12.67
Spa Novices' Hurdle 21% 15.93
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup 17% 15.97
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase 17% 16.91
Plate Handicap Chase 17% 20.42
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 16% 22.95
Ultima Handicap Chase 13% 13.57
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle 13% 16.8
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 9% 19.20
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle 7% 13.77
Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 0% 3.13

The data above shows the percentage of favourites that have won each race at Cheltenham since the year 2000, or since the race was first run. We also show the average odds for each race.  We have chosen to restrict this to races run in this century so the data is more reflective of what you will see in a Festival race today.  Some races go back to the mid-1800’s and looking at races 100 years ago is often not relevant today.

Before discussing the individual races one thing that immediately jumps out is the variation in the percentage favourites that win.  We are going to exclude the Mrs Paddy Power Chase for now as this was only established in 2021 and therefore does not yet have sufficient representative data.

Earlier we said that favourites win around 30% of races and that corresponds with the median value in the table above, 30% (median is the middle value).  Also looking at the the average of averages, excluding the Mrs Paddy Power Chase, this works out at 29%. This means that the Festival is broadly in line with the general stats on favourites winning in horse racing.

The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle has seen the favourite win the most, with 56% of races since won by the shortest-odds horse since it was founded in 2008, while the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, established in 2009, has seen just 7% of favourites win.

Therefore, picking the right races to back favourites in or to pick longer odds outsiders is crucial when choosing your Cheltenham wagers.

Mares’ Races See A Lot Of Favourites Win

mare word definitionThere are currently three races restricted to mare’s at the Festival and interestingly two of them take the first and second spot in the table.  The other race, the Mrs Paddy Power Chase, has not been running long enough to evaluate yet.

Therefore, backing the favourite girls could be a good option. The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle happens to also be the race with the lowest average odds for the winner, which makes sense (read more about that on our average odds for Cheltenham Festival winners page).  However, that is thanks in large part to the fact Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have won most of the races since it started and Quevega won 6 of the first 7 races in a row.

The mares’ race with the second most favourites that win, the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, is more interesting.  Despite 38% of the horses that win this race being favourites the average odds of the winner is 11.71 in decimal (~21/2), that puts this race pretty much half way in the average odds of the winner list – suggesting that even though favourites win often there is value to be found.

Grade 1 Races Dominate The Top Half

gold cup race board at cheltenhamOnly one of the first 11 races in the table is not a grade 1 race, that is the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, which is a grade 2 affair.  All of the big four championship races (Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayer’s Hurdle and Gold Cup) along with the 5th biggest race, the Ryanair Chase, are in the top 10.

That may sound logical on the face of it, the best of the best horses compete in these races and these are the ones we may expect to win more often.  That doesn’t, however, reflect the quality of the field in these races.  Take the Gold Cup, for example, 48% of Gold Cup races are won by the favourite, yet, in any given year there are 4 or 5 runners that could easily win the Gold Cup.  All the runners in these races have won high profile races before and so it is not a given that the percentage of favourites that win these races should be so high.

While all of the big 5 races have a percentage above 35% this should be taken with some caution based on the fact that favourites are generally short odds, often odds-on.  Therefore, if you backed the favourite every year in these races you may not end up with a profit at the end of it all.

Bigger Field Handicaps See Less Favourites Win

martin pipe conditional race board at cheltenham gold cup dayIt is not a surprise to see that it is the more open bigger field handicaps that also see the lowest percentage of favourites win.  Handicaps by design weight horses to try to create a level playing field, thereby reducing the advantage for any favourite, who is more likely to be carrying a higher weight.

To support that idea there are only two race higher than Premier Handicap in the bottom 10 (excluding the Mrs Paddy Power Chase). One of these is a special race in itself as it is a flat race, the Champion Bumper, grade 1.  The other is the Grade 1 Spa Novices’ Hurdle.

The Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle and Coral Cup both see the favourite win in less than 1 out of 10 races.  That is actually quite low when you consider the Grand National, regarded as a lottery of race by many, has an average favourite win rate of around 15%.

Average Odds Do Not Always Correspond

long oddsGenerally, as you would expect, the races with the lowest average odds for the winners tend to be the races where the favourites win the most.  This isn’t a steadfast rule, though.

The Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle is the race with the highest average winner odds but it is 6th from bottom in the percentage favourites that win, 17%.  Therefore, while favourites win roughly 1 in 5 races the average odds are still 23.17 in decimal (~ 22/1).

Conversely, as mentioned previously, the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle sees 38% of races won by the favourite but average odds in the middle of the list.  Even the Champion Hurdle, 2nd on the favourites list with 52% has fairly high average winner odds at 8.12 (~7/1).

Primary Sidebar

Cheltenham Free Bets

Meetings at Cheltenham

  • Cheltenham Festival
    • Champion Day
    • Ladies Day
    • St Patrick’s Thursday
    • Gold Cup Day
  • Festival Trials Day
  • New Year’s Day
  • November Meeting
    • Countryside Day
    • Gold Cup Day
    • November Meeting Sunday
  • Race Night
  • Showcase Meeting
    • The Showcase Friday
    • The Showcase Saturday
  • The April Meeting
    • April Meeting Day One
    • April Meeting Day Two
  • The International Meeting
    • International Friday
    • International Saturday

Race Types

  • Amateur Races
  • Championship Races
  • Conditions Races
  • Cross Country Races
  • Cup Races
  • Fillies' Races
  • Grade 1 Races
  • Grade 2 Races
  • Grade 3 Races
  • Handicap Races
  • Hurdle Races
  • Juvenile Races
  • Listed Races
  • Maiden Races
  • Mares' Races
  • Novices' Races
  • Premier Handicap Races
  • Standard Open Flat Races
  • Steeplechase Races
  • Trial Races
  • Trophy Races
  • Discontinued Races

Latest News

  • 2023 Cheltenham Festival Attendance Significantly Down On 2022
  • Why Is Horse Racing More at Risk from the Gambling Review?
  • Cheltenham Festival 2023 Review: Constitution Hill Is A Superstar, Mullins & The Irish At It Again
  • Soft Ground Expected For Cheltenham Following Snow
  • Will Willie Mullins Train More Winners Than Britain At The 2023 Cheltenham Festival?

Articles

  • Why Was The 2001 Cheltenham Festival Cancelled?
  • What Is The National Stud?
  • What Is A NAP?
  • Did The Romans Create Our Love Of Racing & Gambling?
  • The Biggest Bets Placed On Horse Racing
  • What Is The Maximum Field Size?
  • Careers In Racing
  • What Happens To A Horse When It Falls
  • Do Bookies Leave Racecourses Early To Avoid Paying Out?
  • Are There Any Truly Wild Horses?
  • Who Are The BHA?
  • Origins Of Steeplechasing
  • Is Horse Racing Too Traditional? Why Is It So Confusing?
  • Robot Horse Racing
  • Are There More Fatalities On Hard Ground In Horse Racing?
  • Types Of Jump Racing Fences
  • Biggest Comebacks In Horse Racing
  • Difference Between A Hurdle & A Fence In Jump Racing
  • What Are Hurdles & Fences Made From?
  • Why Are Race Distances Measured In Miles, Furlongs & Yards
  • Stag And Hen Do's At Cheltenham
  • Each-Way vs Place Betting: Which Is Better?
  • What Are Final Declarations
  • Does Illegal Horse Racing Still Happen?
  • What Is Pony Racing? How Is It Different To Horse Racing?
  • Ladies At The Races
  • What Do Nose, Head, Neck and Length Mean?
  • What Is A Furlong?
  • When Is A Race Declared Void?
  • False Starts In Horse Racing
  • What Are Official Ratings in Horse Racing?
  • Can You Run A Race With Only One Horse?
  • What Is Point To Point Racing
  • Best Day Of The Cheltenham Festival
  • How Much Does It Cost To Buy and Train a Racehorse?
  • Cheltenham Festival Ticket Types
  • How Much Does Racing Make From The Betting Levy?
  • Are There Less Horse Deaths In Racing Today?
  • Origins Of Jockey Silks In Horse Racing & Rules
  • Can A Jockey Remount A Horse?
  • What Happens If No Horse Wins A Race?
  • Why Do Horses Jump Fences?
  • How High and Far Can A Horse Jump?
  • Use Of The Whip In Horse Racing
  • What Are The Different Types Of Racehorses?
  • Who Sponsors Cheltenham Races
  • How Do Racehorse Owner Syndicates Work?
  • How Much Do Racehorses Weigh?
  • How Does Travelling Affect Racehorse Performance?
  • What PPE Do Jockeys Wear And Why?
  • Can Racehorses Overheat?
  • Benefits Of Owning Race Horses
  • What Is The Top Speed Of A Racehorse?
  • Do Racehorses Have Special Diets & Nutrition?
  • How Are Racehorses Transported & What Are The Rules
  • What Happened To All-Weather Jumps Racing?
  • What Was Tic Tac? The Sign Language For On-Course Bookmakers
  • The Road To Cheltenham
  • Retraining of Racehorses
  • What Happens To Retired Racehorses?
  • Horse Racing Mix-Ups
  • Youngest Jockeys In Horse Racing History
  • What Are Blinkers & Why Do Race Horses Wear Them?
  • How Long Do You Have To Claim A Winning Bet At A Racecourse?
  • Female Jockey Pioneers
  • Oldest Jockeys In Horse Racing History
  • Record Jockey Wins For Cheltenham Festival Races
  • Record Trainer Wins For Cheltenham Festival Races
  • Cheltenham Festival Races Record Horse Wins
  • Biggest Prize Money Races At The Cheltenham Festival
  • The Life Of A Racing Jockey
  • Races With The Most Fences At The Cheltenham Festival
  • How Often Do Mares' Win At The Cheltenham Festival
  • Average Winner Age Cheltenham Festival Races
  • Longest Races At The Cheltenham Festival
  • Cheltenham Festival's Newest Races
  • How Often Does the Favourite Win at the Cheltenham Festival?
  • Average Winner Odds Cheltenham Festival Races
  • Cheltenham Festival Stats & Trends
  • Veganism & Horse Racing
  • Horse Doping In Horse Racing
  • Most Feared Fences In Horse Racing
  • Jockey Injuries
  • How To Become A Jockey
  • Horse Injuries
  • What Is Going In Horse Racing
  • Richest Races In Horse Racing
  • What Is The Starting Price In Racing
  • When Is The Best Time To Bet Ante-Post
  • Impact Of Wetter Winters On UK Jump Racing
  • How Long Do Racehorses Live For?
  • How Much Do Jockeys Weigh?
  • Rules For Naming Race Horses
  • What Is A Dead Heat In Horse Racing?
  • Who Would Win A Race Between A Horse And A Dog?
  • What Makes A Good Jump Stayer?
  • What Is A Stewards Enquiry?
  • Why Are Horses Disqualified and Who Decides?
  • Courses At Cheltenham: Old, New and Cross Country
  • How Are Jump Horses Trained Differently To Flat Horses?
  • Longest Odds Winners In Horse Racing History
  • How Much Money Is Bet At Cheltenham?
  • How Much Is Cheltenham Worth To The Economy?
  • Top 5 Cheltenham Festival Owners
  • Accessibility At Cheltenham The Cheltenham Festival
  • Cheltenham Festival's Oldest Race Still Running
  • Biggest Female Trainers
  • Celebrity Race Horse Owners
  • Can Jockeys, Trainers & Owners Bet?
  • British vs Irish Trainers And Stables At Cheltenham
  • Things To Do & Places To Visit In Cheltenham
  • The Royal Family And The Cheltenham Festival
  • How Much Does It Cost To Be An On-Course Bookmaker?
  • How Much Money Do Race Horse Owners Make?
  • How Much Money Do Trainers Make?
  • Cheltenham Race Types
  • Cheltenham Hotels & Cheltenham Festival Accommodation
  • Top 5 Cheltenham Festival Trainers
  • Top 5 Cheltenham Festival Jockeys
  • Top 10 Cheltenham Festival Horses
  • How Much Money Do Jockeys Make?
  • Richest Jockeys In Horse Racing History
  • Getting To Cheltenham Racecourse
  • Cheltenham Festival vs Grand National, Which Is Better?
  • Cheltenham Racecourse History
  • Why Is The Cheltenham Festival So Big?
  • Cheltenham Festival History
  • The Prestbury Cup
  • Cheltenham Festival Quiz
  • Cheltenham Festival Top Trainer
  • Cheltenham Festival Top Jockey
  • Cheltenham Racecourse During The War
  • Ante-Post Betting - Risk vs Reward
  • Jump Racing Distances
  • How to Read a Race Card
  • How To Bet On Horse Racing
  • Disqualification, Non-Runners and Rule 4
  • Age, Sex and Weight in Horse Racing
  • History And About National Hunt Racing
  • A-Z Glossary Of Horse Racing Terms
  • Horse Racing News, Statistics & Blogs
  • Live Streaming of Horse Racing
  • Live Betting In Play On Horse Racing
  • Cash Out And Partial Cash Out On Horse Racing
  • Grades and Classes In National Hunt Jump Racing

Offers

  • Cheltenham Free Bets
  • Irish Free Bets
  • Acca Offers For Horse Racing
  • Extra Places Each-Way & Enhanced Each Way Terms Cheltenham Festival 2024
  • Horse Racing Loyalty Free Bet Clubs
  • Horse Racing Money Back
  • Best Odds Guaranteed For The Cheltenham Festival
  • Tote and Totepool Betting
  • Lucky Bets and Bonuses For Horse Racing
  • Non-Runner No Bet
  • Free Bets And Bonuses For Winners
  • Best Odds Guaranteed For Horse Racing
  • Faller & Fail To Finish Insurance For Horse Racing

Copyright © 2023 CheltenhamBettingOffers.com | 18+ Gamble Aware | Privacy & Cookie Policy